“East Ukraine’s Uneasy Quiet Raises Questions of Who’s Running the Insurgency”
The Associated Press, May 30, 2014
“The scruffy rebels who normally wander about the headquarters of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic were mostly out of view on Friday, replaced by a disciplined new faction who showed up a day earlier with an armored personnel carrier and anti-aircraft gun. The separatists’ so-called prime minister said nothing has changed — but something has clearly shifted in Ukraine’s troubled east. The balance of power in the region has teetered wildly this week. After Ukrainians elected Petro Poroshenko as the country’s president and Russia said it would respect the vote, hopes rose for a resolution to the conflict between the central government and the insurgents who want Donetsk to be part of Russia. But a day later, the rebels launched an exceptionally bold assault, seizing Donetsk’s airport. Ukraine’s military responded with previously unseen ferocity, launching airstrikes and sending in paratroopers to retake the airport. To some, the rebel operation looked like a desperate last stand. But on Thursday, insurgents shot down a Ukrainian military helicopter, killing 12 soldiers, including a general. The same day, the murky Vostok Battalion militiamen took over rebel headquarters in the 11-story Donetsk regional administration building, demanding it be evacuated because of what they said was the presence of looters. The Vostok Battalion’s wrath was ostensibly about the ransacking of a supermarket during the battle for the airport, but some interpreted their move as a power grab. The battalion is believed to consist largely of Russians, bolstering fears that Russia is either directing the unrest in the east or supporting it in order to destabilize the country and seize regions bordering Russia. … Meanwhile, there were mixed signals Friday on whether Moscow and Kiev were moving toward improving relations, a key element in resolving the conflict. … Also Friday, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said it lost contact with a five-member observer team in eastern Ukraine, where four members of another OSCE mission are still being held by pro-Russian rebels.”
Quickie Analysis: Even if Russia has now pulled its troops back from Ukraine’s border, Russia seems to be playing multiple games on multiple levels.