Thinking Aloud: “Possible Next Steps for the U.S., Ukraine, Russia and the International Community,” Part I

Mar. 9, 2014 by Darius 

Earlier this week, I attended a panel discussion about the current crisis in Ukraine.  The panel served to provide some important history and insights about events that are still happening at a breakneck pace.  Of the panelists, two, Fiona Hill of Brookings and Steve Pifer, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, provided the most valuable comments.  Dr. Hill, a Russia specialist, helped to put in context Russia’s perspective on Ukraine, while Amb. Pifer focused on how Ukraine can respond to the challenges facing it.  Today, I’ll bring you Dr. Hill’s comments, while tomorrow will be dedicated to Ambassador Pifer’s.

For Russians, the events in Ukraine are the culmination of the last twenty years.  During the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russians considered Crimea to be “the one that got away” – part of Russia not included in the new Russian Federation.  Russian claims to Crimea have cropped up in times of Ukrainian crisis:  during the collapse of the USSR, during the 2004 Orange Revolution, and again in 2008 as Ukraine’s economy went through a crisis.  Seen in that light, Russia’s aggressive policies aimed at Crimea today are not surprising.

The population of Crimea isn’t necessarily so keen on joining Russia, though.  A poll conducted in February found that only 41% of Crimeans supported joining Russia; given the area’s ethnic Russian majority, that proportion is quite low.  Especially vociferous in its opposition to Crimea joining Russia is Crimea’s Tartar population.  Crimean Tartars represent 12-15% of Crimea’s total population.  Under the Soviet Union (i.e. Stalin), the Crimean Tartars were forcibly deported from the Crimea because of the strategic importance of the Crimea and concerns about the Tartars’ loyalty to the Soviet Union.  Unsurprisingly, Crimean Tartars don’t have warm fuzzy feelings towards Russia.

Dr. Hill likened Russia’s invasion of other cities in eastern Ukraine as similar to Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974.  She felt that Russia is interested primarily in Crimea; other cities in Eastern Ukraine, like Kharkiv and Donetsk, have been taken mainly as bargaining chips to consolidate Russian control over Crimea.

In Russia, President Putin is presently in a position of strength.  Russia’s success at the Winter Olympics in Sochi has given Putin a bump in popularity at home.  His domestic approval ratings once again top 70%, while the Russian public has fully embraced his narrative of events in Ukraine.

Dr. Hill believed that Putin is not going after Crimea in order to antagonize the West.  Instead, Putin is playing to his domestic audience.  Putin is holding up Ukraine, and especially the street protests that brought down legitimately elected President Yanukovych, as a cautionary tale about what happens when corruption, extremism, and economic mismanagement are allowed to flourish, as they did in Russia in the 1990s.  Who arrived to save Russia from this fate?  You guessed it.  Putin did, and the events in Ukraine have given him a way of reminding his domestic audience of that.

Dr. Hill also likened Russia’s designs on Crimea as a sort of “post-imperialist hangover” as Russia grapples with its waning identity as a world power.  She placed the Crimean issue in a long line of such actions, like Britain in the Falklands War and France fighting in Algeria until the bitter end.

Dr. Hill also noted that Putin is very concerned about extremism of any stripe.  He is very wary of extreme nationalists, even if these nationalists are pro-Russian.  By painting the Ukrainian protesters as dominated by Fascist and neo-Nazi groups, Putin further sets himself apart from extreme nationalism.  And nationalism is a major challenge to Putin:  many Russians are hostile towards other ethnic groups, and unfettered nationalism has the potential to scuttle Putin’s dream of a Eurasian Union encompassing Russian, parts of eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Caucasus.  The envisioned Eurasian Union, like the European Union, would allow for free flow of goods and, more to the point, people.

With Putin balancing a myriad of interests and narratives, the future of Russia, Crimea, and Ukraine remains unclear.  Tomorrow, I’ll bring you former US ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer’s concrete suggestions about how Ukraine should move forward.